H-1B Lottery Selection Odds Calculator 2026

How the Wage-Weighted H-1B Lottery Works

Effective February 27, 2026, USCIS moved from a purely random H-1B lottery to a wage-weighted selection system. Instead of each registration getting exactly one entry, registrations are now weighted toward higher-paying positions as classified by the Department of Labor's four-tier Occupational Employment and Wage Statistics (OEWS) scale — Level I (entry-level) through Level IV (senior/expert). Each unique beneficiary still only counts once toward the 85,000 annual cap (65,000 regular + 20,000 for the Master's Cap) regardless of weighting; the weighting affects your probability of selection, not the total number of visas available.

DHS's own published estimates in the final rule project a roughly 48% decrease in selection odds for Level I beneficiaries compared to the old random system, while Level IV beneficiaries are estimated to be roughly twice as likely to be selected. USCIS has not published exact equivalent multipliers for Level II and III, so this calculator interpolates a directional estimate between the two published anchor points rather than presenting invented precision.

FY2026 Baseline Context (Pre-Weighting)

For context on overall competition levels: FY2026 saw 343,981 total H-1B registrations, down 26.9% from FY2025's 470,342 (which itself fell 38% from FY2024's 758,994 following the 2025 beneficiary-centric reform that ended duplicate registrations by multiple employers). The FY2026 overall selection rate reached approximately 35.3% under the old random system. FY2027 will be the first cycle evaluated under the new wage-weighted rules, so this baseline provides useful historical context but isn't a direct predictor of what FY2027 selection rates will look like.

Common Mistakes

• Assuming the lottery is still purely random. As of February 27, 2026, wage level materially affects your relative odds — a Level I registration and a Level IV registration are no longer equally likely to be selected.
• Registering at a lower wage level than the role actually justifies. Since your wage level is set by the position's OEWS classification, working with your employer to accurately (not artificially low) classify the role can meaningfully affect your odds.
• Not knowing that multiple registrations use your lowest wage level. If several employers register you at different wage levels, USCIS uses the lowest one among them to determine your weighting — a second, lower-wage registration can drag down your odds rather than adding a genuine extra chance.
• Treating FY2026's 35.3% figure as this year's expected rate. That number reflects the old random system — FY2027 outcomes under wage-weighting will differ, likely more favorably for Level III/IV and less favorably for Level I.

Frequently Asked Questions